Boise State needs just one more victory to set up a showdown against Utah State for the Mountain Division of the MWC in the final week of the season. Plus, a victory keeps Boise State in the top 25 in the Associated Press and College Football Playoff rankings. However, to get to that point they'll have to get past New Mexico on the road on Friday night. That action will be broadcast on CBS Sports Network with kickoff coming at 9 p.m. ET. The Broncos are 20-point favorites and the over-under for total points scored is 62.5 in the latest Boise State vs. New Mexico odds. Before you make any Boise State vs. New Mexico picks and predictions, you'll want to see what the advanced computer model at SportsLine has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.
The model was red-hot on top-rated picks last week. It nailed Ohio State (-3.5) over Michigan State in a game where the Buckeyes covered with plenty of room to spare in a 26-6 rout. Picks like that helped it go an impressive 23-10 overall on all top-rated plays, and anyone who followed it finished way, way up.
Now, the model has simulated every possible play for Boise State vs. New Mexico 10,000 times. We can tell you it's leaning under, but it has also locked in an against the spread pick that's hitting nearly 60 percent of the time. You can only see that one at SportsLine.
The model knows one big reason why the Broncos are favored by almost three touchdowns on Friday night is the versatility of their passing attack. Boise State has four wide receivers with at least 30 receptions and 400 yards receiving, while New Mexico doesn't have the secondary depth to combat that level of skill on the outside.
In any given week, any Bronco receiver is a threat to take over a game. Additionally, New Mexico has given up 100 yards to two receivers in the same game on two occasions this season. And quarterback Brett Rypien has largely been lights-out. He has seven games with multiple touchdown passes and threw for five scores in a 399-yard gem against Air Force three weeks ago.
However, don't assume that makes covering a given for Boise State.
The Lobos were incredibly stingy in their last home game against San Diego State. They were 12-point underdogs in that contest and wound up covering in a 31-23 loss.
The Lobos actually led 23-14 in the fourth quarter before a late charge from the Aztecs. In that game, the Lobos were able to hang around because of their ability to create turnovers, which has been a strength of their defense all season. They've taken the ball away 21 times this season and if they can force Boise State into critical mistakes, they'll have a strong chance to cover.
When it comes to covering, both teams are nearly equal. Boise State is 5-4 against the spread this season versus FBS teams, while New Mexico is 4-5.
So, which side of Boise State vs. New Mexico hits against the spread in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Boise State vs. New Mexico you need to jump on, all from the model that has returned more than $4,000 in profit for $100 bettors, and find out.
